Today, Lanhee Chen breaks down likely Republican strategies ahead of the midterm elections; Eyck Freymann and Michael Boskin discuss how the United States can prepare for, to hopefully avoid, a war with China; and Lee Ohanian discusses the costs of a new California environmental regulation focused on vehicle tires.
National Politics & Policy
Research Fellow Lanhee Chen joined the Meet the Press panel yesterday to discuss closely watched races in the upcoming midterm elections. Noting that Republicans have an “enthusiasm gap” to overcome, Chen sees the party adopting two strategies. One is to try to “disqualify” Democratic opponents by associating them with far left policy positions, a tactic Chen says Sen. Ted Cruz has employed against Texas Senate candidate and State Representative James Talarico. Chen argues that involving President Trump is the other way Republicans are trying to bolster enthusiasm and turnout, by effectively nationalizing the race. This tactic would not work in some other competitive races, Chen notes, but appears to be a promising Republican strategy in Texas. Chen also discusses why he thinks there will be a crowded presidential field in 2028, as Trump carries out an extended “Apprentice-style audition” for his endorsement. Watch here.
Security and Defense
Can America deter a war with China over Taiwan, and if so, how?
The Big Idea: Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann, author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China and Arsenal of Democracy: Technology, Industry, and Deterrence in an Age of Hard Choices (with Harry Halem), joins Senior Fellow Michael J. Boskin to discuss Taiwan’s importance to American security and the global economy, how China might seek to coerce or seize the island, and whether the United States is ready and capable of deterring its principal adversary in such an event. Watch or listen here.
California Policy & Politics
California regulators, touting environmental benefits, have decided that vehicle tires must meet increasingly strict standards focusing on rolling resistance, writes Senior Fellow Lee Ohanian for California on Your Mind. The promised windfall in greenhouse gases and energy savings is actually quite modest, says Ohanian, while the full consequences of the regulation remain unknown. The state’s insistence on minimal cost increases also seems suspect in light of industry representatives’ strong assertions to the contrary, he writes. As with much regulation, the tire decision doesn’t consider the power of innovation in the marketplace, Ohanian continues. Better products proliferate in a market where consumers are free to choose among various options, he says. Ohanian concludes by noting a tire company CEO’s warning to Sacramento: “When you attempt to regulate something you don’t understand, or don’t care much about, you create bad policy.” Read more here.
The Middle East
What would it take to realize a demilitarized Gaza run by nonpartisan technocrats, a Palestinian identity defined by aspiration rather than opposition, and direct Israeli-Palestinian dialogue?
The Big Idea: Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, leader of an Atlantic Council project that challenges entrenched narratives about Israel and Palestine, joins Russ Roberts on EconTalk to discuss public opinion in Gaza and the prospects for new approaches to peace with Israel. Alkhatib emphasizes Palestinian agency while also criticizing Israel’s settlement expansion and what he sees as its undermining of political moderates; meanwhile, Roberts expresses skepticism that Hamas will ever truly disarm. Watch or listen here.
Freedom Frequency
Globalization is shaped not just by technology and economic progress but also by the international political order, Kiel Geoeconomics Initiative founder Christoph Trebesch writes at Freedom Frequency. Trade and geopolitical alignment reinforce each other. When a hegemon dominates the global economy, as the United States has done since World War II, other countries have incentives to align with it—and in fact, globalization is easier to sustain under a hegemon, Trebesch argues. Such alignment reduces the friction of cross-border trade by harmonizing rules, institutions, and policies. Today, the economist argues, the end of US hegemonic globalization signals a more multipolar world, and the biggest losers in this transition appear to be the former hegemon and its most closely aligned countries. International trade will survive, but in a less stable order, he suggests. Trebesch concludes that countries, especially “middle powers,” must invest significantly more in monitoring world developments and preparing for potential conflicts. Read more here.
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